Forecasting elections

Vaughan Williams, L. and Reade, J. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8610-530X (2016) Forecasting elections. Journal of Forecasting, 35 (4). pp. 308-328. ISSN 1099-131X doi: 10.1002/for.2377

Abstract/Summary

In this paper we assess opinion polls, prediction markets, expert opinion and statistical modelling over a large number of US elections in order to determine which perform better in terms of forecasting outcomes. In line with existing literature, we bias-correct opinion polls. We consider accuracy, bias and precision over different time horizons before an election, and we conclude that prediction markets appear to provide the most precise forecasts and are similar in terms of bias to opinion polls. We find that our statistical model struggles to provide competitive forecasts, while expert opinion appears to be of value. Finally we note that the forecast horizon matters; whereas prediction market forecasts tend to improve the nearer an election is, opinion polls appear to perform worse, while expert opinion performs consistently throughout. We thus contribute to the growing literature comparing election forecasts of polls and prediction markets.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/47396
Identification Number/DOI	10.1002/for.2377
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Economics
Publisher	Wiley
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