Exploring the impact of CMIP5 model biases on the simulation of North Atlantic decadal variability

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Menary, M. B., Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583, Wood, R. A. and Hunt, J. A. (2015) Exploring the impact of CMIP5 model biases on the simulation of North Atlantic decadal variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (14). pp. 5926-5934. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1002/2015GL064360

Abstract/Summary

Instrumental observations, palaeo-proxies, and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASPG). However, a poorly sampled observational record and a diversity of model behaviours mean that the precise nature and mechanisms of this variability are unclear. Here, we analyse an exceptionally large multi-model ensemble of 42 present-generation climate models to test whether NASPG mean state biases systematically affect the representation of decadal variability. Temperature and salinity biases in the Labrador Sea co-vary and influence whether density variability is controlled by temperature or salinity variations. Ocean horizontal resolution is a good predictor of the biases and the location of the dominant dynamical feedbacks within the NASPG. However, we find no link to the spectral characteristics of the variability. Our results suggest that the mean state and mechanisms of variability within the NASPG are not independent. This represents an important caveat for decadal predictions using anomaly-assimilation methods.

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Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/40632
Identification Number/DOI	10.1002/2015GL064360
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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Funders:	European Commission	The sponsoring bodies who contributed funding for the creation of this item. Example: NERC Example: The Royal Society of Chemistry A pick list of funders may appear as you type in the funder's name in full or as an acronym. Select a correct match to complete the field or type in a new entry in full. For new entries, the full name is preferred.
Projects:	Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services (SPECS) Funded by: European Commission (308378 - £333,062) Local Lead (PI): Rowan Sutton 1 November 2012 - 31 January 2017 DYNamics and predictability of the Atlantic Meridonal Overturning and Climate (DYNAMOC) Funded by: Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M005127/1 - £340,411) Local Lead (PI): Rowan Sutton Project Lead: Rowan Timothy Sutton 1 November 2014 - 31 October 2017	Click Add to select your project (received at Reading) from an autocomplete list.

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Date Deposited:	08 Jul 2015 11:59	Date item deposited into CentAUR
Last Modified:	13 Dec 2024 02:23	Date item last modified

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