HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?

Pappenberger, F. and Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X (2011) HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15 (7). pp. 2391-2400. ISSN 1027-5606 doi: 10.5194/hess-15-2391-2011

Abstract/Summary

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/39308
Identification Number/DOI	10.5194/hess-15-2391-2011
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Earth Systems Science Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Centre for Past Climate Change
Publisher	Copernicus
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