Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts

Lynch, K. J., Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362 and Charlton-Perez, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8179-6220 (2014) Verification of European subseasonal wind speed forecasts. Monthly Weather Review, 142 (8). pp. 2978-2990. ISSN 1520-0493 doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00341.1

Abstract/Summary

Analysis of the forecasts and hindcasts from the ECMWF 32-day forecast model reveals that there is statistically significant skill in predicting weekly mean wind speeds over areas of Europe at lead times of at least 14–20 days. Previous research on wind speed predictability has focused on the short- to medium-range time scales, typically finding that forecasts lose all skill by the later part of the medium-range forecast. To the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first to look beyond the medium-range time scale by taking weekly mean wind speeds, instead of averages at hourly or daily resolution, for the ECMWF monthly forecasting system. It is shown that the operational forecasts have high levels of correlation (~0.6) between the forecasts and observations over the winters of 2008–12 for some areas of Europe. Hindcasts covering 20 winters show a more modest level of correlation but are still skillful. Additional analysis examines the probabilistic skill for the United Kingdom with the application of wind power forecasting in mind. It is also shown that there is forecast “value” for end users (operating in a simple cost/loss ratio decision-making framework). End users that are sensitive to winter wind speed variability over the United Kingdom, Germany, and some other areas of Europe should therefore consider forecasts beyond the medium-range time scale as it is clear there is useful information contained within the forecast.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/37375
Identification Number/DOI	10.1175/MWR-D-13-00341.1
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Interdisciplinary Research Centres (IDRCs) > Walker Institute Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Energy Research Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Meteorological Society
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