Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

Clements, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 (2014) Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation. International Journal of Forecasting, 30 (1). pp. 99-117. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.010

Abstract/Summary

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.