Consensus and uncertainty: using forecast probabilities of output declines

Clements, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 (2008) Consensus and uncertainty: using forecast probabilities of output declines. International Journal of Forecasting, 24 (1). pp. 76-86. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.06.003

Abstract/Summary

A number of studies have addressed the relationship between intra-personal uncertainty and inter-personal disagreement about the future values of economic variables such as output growth and inflation using the SPF. By making use of the SPF respondents' probability forecasts of declines in output, we are able to construct a quarterly series of output growth uncertainty to supplement the annual series that are often used in such analyses. We also consider the relationship between disagreement and uncertainty for probability forecasts of declines in output.