Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models

Clements, M. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6329-1341 and Galvao, A. B. C. (2003) Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 7 (4). pp. 567-585. ISSN 1365-1005 doi: 10.1017/S1365100502020163

Abstract/Summary

We test the expectations theory of the term structure of U.S. interest rates in nonlinear systems. These models allow the response of the change in short rates to past values of the spread to depend upon the level of the spread. The nonlinear system is tested against a linear system, and the results of testing the expectations theory in both models are contrasted. We find that the results of tests of the implications of the expectations theory depend on the size and sign of the spread. The long maturity spread predicts future changes of the short rate only when it is high.