International terrorism, domestic political instability, and the escalation effect

Campos, N. F. and Gassebner, M. (2013) International terrorism, domestic political instability, and the escalation effect. Economics & Politics, 25 (1). pp. 27-47. ISSN 1468-0343 doi: 10.1111/ecpo.12002

Abstract/Summary

What are the main causes of international terrorism? Despite the meticulous examination of various candidate explanations, existing estimates still diverge in sign, size, and significance. This article puts forward a novel explanation and supporting evidence. We argue that domestic political instability provides the learning environment needed to successfully execute international terror attacks. Using a yearly panel of 123 countries over 1973–2003, we find that the occurrence of civil wars increases fatalities and the number of international terrorist acts by 45%. These results hold for alternative indicators of political instability, estimators, subsamples, subperiods, and accounting for competing explanations.