Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems.

Pappenberger, F., Bogner, K., Wetterhall, F., He, Y., Cloke, H. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1472-868X and Thielen, J. (2011) Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems. Advances in Geosciences (ADGEO), 29. pp. 27-32. ISSN 1680-7340 doi: 10.5194/adgeo-29-27-2011

Abstract/Summary

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/35030
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Interdisciplinary Research Centres (IDRCs) > Walker Institute Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Earth Systems Science Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Publisher	Copernicus Publications
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