Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies

Barnett, T. P., Bengtsson, L., Arpe, K., Flugel, M., Graham, N., Latif, M., Ritchie, J., Roeckner, E., Schlese, U., Schulzweida, U. and Tyree, M. (1994) Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 46 (4). pp. 381-397. ISSN 0280-6495 doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1994.t01-3-00005.x

Abstract/Summary

Long-range global climate forecasts have been made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of the wintertime 500 mb height, surface air temperature and precipitation for seven large climatic events of the 1970–1990s by this two-tiered technique agree well in general with observations over many regions of the globe. The levels of agreement are high enough in some regions to have practical utility.