Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere

Santer, B. D., Wigley, T. M. L., Gaffen, D. J., Bengtsson, L., Doutriaux, C., Boyle, J. S. , Esch, M., Hnilo, J. J., Jones, P. D., Meehl, G. A., Roeckner, E., Taylor, K. E. and Wehner, M. F. (2000) Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere. Science, 287 (5456). pp. 1227-1232. ISSN 0036-8075 doi: 10.1126/science.287.5456.1227

Abstract/Summary

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.