Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s

Sutton, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2012) Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s. Nature Geoscience, 5. pp. 788-792. ISSN 1752-0908 doi: 10.1038/ngeo1595

Abstract/Summary

European climate exhibits variability on a wide range of timescales. Understanding the nature and drivers of this variability is an essential step in developing robust climate predictions and risk assessments. The Atlantic Ocean has been suggested as an important driver of variability in European climate on decadal timescales1, but the importance of this influence in recent decades has been unclear, partly because of difficulties in separating the influence of the Atlantic Ocean from other contributions, for example, from the tropical Pacific Ocean and the stratosphere. Here we analyse four data sets derived from observations to show that, during the 1990s, there was a substantial shift in European climate towards a pattern characterized by anomalously wet summers in northern Europe, and hot, dry, summers in southern Europe, with related shifts in spring and autumn. These changes in climate coincided with a substantial warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, towards a state last seen in the 1950s. The patterns of European climate change in the 1990s are consistent with earlier changes attributed to the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean, and provide compelling evidence that the Atlantic Ocean was the key driver. Our results suggest that the recent pattern of anomalies in European climate will persist as long as the North Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/30109
Identification Number/DOI	10.1038/ngeo1595
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Uncontrolled Keywords	Atmospheric science, Climate science, Oceanography
Publisher	Nature Publishing
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