The coupled model predictability of the Western North Pacific summer monsoon with different leading times

Lu, R.-y., Li, C.-F., Yang, S.-H. and Dong, B. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0809-7911 (2012) The coupled model predictability of the Western North Pacific summer monsoon with different leading times. Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 5 (3). pp. 219-224. ISSN 1674-2834

Abstract/Summary

Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and seven-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960-2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.