Organic certification, export market access and the impacts of policy: Bayesian estimation of avocado smallholder “times-to-organic certification” in Michoacán Mexico

Hattam, C. E., Lacombe, D. J. and Holloway, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2058-4504 (2012) Organic certification, export market access and the impacts of policy: Bayesian estimation of avocado smallholder “times-to-organic certification” in Michoacán Mexico. Agricultural Economics, 43 (4). pp. 441-457. ISSN 0169-5150 doi: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.2012.00595.x

Abstract/Summary

This study analyzes organic adoption decisions using a rich set of time-to-organic durations collected from avocado small-holders in Michoacán Mexico. We derive robust, intrasample predictions about the profiles of entry and exit within the conventional-versus-organic complex and we explore the sensitivity of these predictions to choice of functional form. The dynamic nature of the sample allows us to make retrospective predictions and we establish, precisely, the profile of organic entry had the respondents been availed optimal amounts of adoption-restraining resources. A fundamental problem in the dynamic adoption literature, hitherto unrecognized, is discussed and consequent extensions are suggested.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/28343
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Life Sciences > School of Agriculture, Policy and Development > Department of Agri-Food Economics & Marketing
Uncontrolled Keywords	Time to organic certification; Adoption; Duration; Avocados; Michoac´an Mexico; Specification search; Model selection; Robust posterior prediction
Publisher	Wiley
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