Predicting space climate change

Barnard, L., Lockwood, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7397-2172, Hapgood, M. A., Owens, M. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2061-2453, Davis, C. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6411-5649 and Steinhilber, F. (2011) Predicting space climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 38. L16103. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2011GL048489

Abstract/Summary

The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest‐fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long‐term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near‐Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300‐year record.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/22909
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2011GL048489
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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