Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change

Troccoli, A., Zambon, F., Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X and Marani, M. (2012) Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change. Climatic Change, 113 (3-4). pp. 1065-1079. ISSN 1573-1480 doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x

Abstract/Summary

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 reanalysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/20636
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Environmental Systems Science Centre
Publisher	Springer
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