A note on atmospheric predictability

Bengtsson, L. and Hodges, K. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2006) A note on atmospheric predictability. Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 58 (1). pp. 154-157. ISSN 0280-6495 doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00156.x

Abstract/Summary

Using the method of Lorenz (1982), we have estimated the predictability of a recent version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model using two different estimates of the initial error corresponding to 6- and 24-hr forecast errors, respectively. For a 6-hr forecast error of the extratropical 500-hPa geopotential height field, a potential increase in forecast skill by more than 3 d is suggested, indicating a further increase in predictability by another 1.5 d compared to the use of a 24-hr forecast error. This is due to a smaller initial error and to an initial error reduction resulting in a smaller averaged growth rate for the whole 7-d forecast. A similar assessment for the tropics using the wind vector fields at 850 and 250 hPa suggests a huge potential improvement with a 7-d forecast providing the same skill as a 1-d forecast now. A contributing factor to the increase in the estimate of predictability is the apparent slow increase of error during the early part of the forecast.

Additional Information	The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com
Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/155
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Additional Information	The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com
Publisher	Wiley-Blackwell
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