Using fuzzy cognitive mapping to assess the sustainability impacts of transitioning to pasture-fed production in the UK beef sector

Rowe, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-8671-8066, Norton, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1622-0281, McVittie, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7128-7446, Watson, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3758-9483, Wagner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2263-304X, Waterton, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1283-4147 and Smith, L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9898-9288 (2025) Using fuzzy cognitive mapping to assess the sustainability impacts of transitioning to pasture-fed production in the UK beef sector. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 40. ISSN 1742-1713 doi: 10.1017/S1742170524000206

Abstract/Summary

One hundred percent pasture-fed beef production has been suggested as a promising approach for sustainable ruminant farming, due to the potential benefits that can accrue across a range of sustainability domains. This study aimed to investigate the impacts across the four domains of sustainability of a wholesale switch from conventional to 100% pasture-fed beef production in the UK. We used fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) as a method for extracting knowledge from multiple stakeholders to create representative systems models of both conventional and pasture-based beef production systems. We then conducted a scenario analysis to assess how a switch to a pasture-fed system could affect components of sustainability in the UK beef sector. The FCMs indicated that vegetation quality, grass use efficiency, and soil health were central components of the pasture-fed approach, while economic and regulatory aspects, and climate change targets were more central to mainstream production approaches. The most marked changes under the 100% conversion scenario were an increase in income from subsidies (27.3%) in line with ‘public money for public goods’, a decrease in ability to export beef (unless advice to reduce consumption of animal protein is followed) (23.5%), a decrease in land used for farming vs other uses (e.g., natural capital) (11.23%), and a decrease in the use of feed from agricultural co/byproducts (7.5%), freeing up these feed sources for more sustainable monogastric production. Therefore, the mapping and scenario analysis suggests that while upscaling the pasture-fed approach may reduce productivity, it would likely increase public goods provision and reduce feed–food competition in the UK.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/122108
Identification Number/DOI	10.1017/S1742170524000206
Refereed	Yes
Publisher	Cambridge University Press
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