Using high-resolution climate models to predict increases in atmospheric turbulence

Smith, I. H. (2025) Using high-resolution climate models to predict increases in atmospheric turbulence. PhD thesis, University of Reading. doi: 10.48683/1926.00120532

Abstract/Summary

Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) and Mountain Wave Turbulence (MWT) are two types of upper-level atmospheric turbulence that have a dangerous impact on aircraft. Understanding how these types of turbulence are changing with global tropospheric warming is important for the future of the aviation sector. Using high resolution global climate models, this thesis initially focuses on how moderate CAT could vary in a high-end warming scenario over the transatlantic basin. Across simulated projected data from the year 1950 to 2050, moderate CAT on average increased in frequency by +14%, +9%, +9%, and +14% over Northern Hemisphere autumn, winter, spring and summer per degree of global near-surface warming. Furthermore, the increase in CAT frequency is decomposed into patch size and number. The region of interest was expanded to the mid to high latitudes over the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. For winter, both hemispheres experienced an increase in the average area and number of patches. This combined effect led to large increase in moderate winter-time CAT, with the total area increasing on average by +360 km2 and +474 km2 per year, for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres respectively.

Item Type	Thesis (PhD)
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/120532
Identification Number/DOI	10.48683/1926.00120532
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
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