Long-lasting intense cut-off lows to become more frequent in the Northern Hemisphere

Mishra, A. N., Maraun, D., Schiemann, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856, Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X, Zappa, G. and Ossó, A. (2025) Long-lasting intense cut-off lows to become more frequent in the Northern Hemisphere. Communications Earth & Environment, 6. 115. ISSN 2662-4435 doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02078-7

Abstract/Summary

Cut-off Lows are slow-moving mid-latitude storms that are detached from the main westerly flow and are often harbingers of heavy and persistent rainfall. The assessment of Cut-off Lows in climate models is relatively limited, in fact, there are no studies conducted on the future changes of Cut-off Lows within climate models. Given the importance of Cut-off Lows in leading to severe hazards, here we study them in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6’s worst-case future simulations (SSP5-8.5). Most (80%) of the models show that Cut-off Lows with high intensity and longer lifetimes are projected to become more frequent in spring over the land regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Such an increase in Cut-off Low frequency could substantially increase related potential hazards. An increase in Cut-off Low propagation velocity, however, may partly offset this increase in hazard. Lastly, projected changes in the jet stream with possible dynamical linkages to Cut-off Lows corroborate the findings of this study.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/120489
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Springer Nature
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