Pacific Decadal Oscillation-driven interdecadal variability of snowfall over the Karakoram and the Western Himalayas

Bharati, P., Deb, P. and Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755 (2025) Pacific Decadal Oscillation-driven interdecadal variability of snowfall over the Karakoram and the Western Himalayas. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 6 (1). pp. 197-210. ISSN 2698-4016 doi: 10.5194/wcd-6-197-2025

Abstract/Summary

Our study reveals that the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO-) leads to increased winter (DJF) snowfall in the Karakoram and Western Himalayas (KH) from 1940 to 2022. Interdecadal variations in DJF snowfall during the PDO- are attributed to deep convection and adiabatic cooling near the tropopause in both the northwest Pacific and KH region. Additionally, a wave-like pattern characterized by a trough (anomalous cyclone) north of KH and a ridge (anomalous Tibetan Plateau anticyclone) east of KH in the upper atmosphere, along the northward shift of the DJF Subtropical Jet (STJ) was observed. A strong positive correlation between DJF STJ strength and DJF snowfall in KH as well as a significant negative correlation between DJF STJ strength and DJF PDO, suggests a wave response over KH to the direct forcing over the northwest Pacific Ocean. The intensified STJ across KH results in higher frequency of Western disturbances, leading to anomalous moisture convergence and increased DJF precipitation in the region during the PDO-. These findings hold significant implications for the decadal predictability of winter snowfall in KH by the various phases of PDO.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/119959
Identification Number/DOI	10.5194/wcd-6-197-2025
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Uncontrolled Keywords	western disturbances, western Himalaya, Karakoram, snowfall, variability, climate change, PDO
Publisher	European Geosciences Union
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