Minimal climate impacts from short‐lived climate forcers following emission reductions related to the COVID‐19 pandemic

Weber, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0643-2026, Shin, Y. M., Staunton Sykes, J., Archer‐Nicholls, S., Luke Abraham, N. and Archibald, A. T. (2020) Minimal climate impacts from short‐lived climate forcers following emission reductions related to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Geophysical Research Letters, 47 (20). e2020GL090326. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2020GL090326

Abstract/Summary

We present an assessment of the impacts on atmospheric composition and radiative forcing of short-lived pollutants following a worldwide decrease in anthropogenic activity and emissions comparable to what has occurred in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using the global composition-climate model United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols Model (UKCA). Emission changes reduce tropospheric hydroxyl radical and ozone burdens, increasing methane lifetime. Reduced SO2 emissions and oxidizing capacity lead to a decrease in sulfate aerosol and increase in aerosol size, with accompanying reductions to cloud droplet concentration. However, large reductions in black carbon emissions increase aerosol albedo. Overall, the changes in ozone and aerosol direct effects (neglecting aerosol-cloud interactions which were statistically insignificant but whose response warrants future investigation) yield a radiative forcing of −33 to −78 mWm−2. Upon cessation of emission reductions, the short-lived climate forcers rapidly return to pre-COVID levels; meaning, these changes are unlikely to have lasting impacts on climate assuming emissions return to pre-intervention levels.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/119876
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2020GL090326
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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