Beyond the regional average: drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains

Kolstad, E. W., Parker, D. J., MacLeod, D. A., Wainwright, C. M. and Hirons, L. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1189-7576 (2024) Beyond the regional average: drivers of geographical rainfall variability during East Africa's short rains. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. ISSN 1477-870X doi: 10.1002/qj.4829

Abstract/Summary

The East African “short rains” from October–December (OND) are crucial for the region's cultural and agricultural landscape. Traditional climate studies have often treated these rains as a single mode, representing the average rainfall across the region. This approach, however, fails to capture the complex geographical variations in seasonal rainfall. In our study, we analyse 4200 reforecasts from a seasonal prediction system spanning 1981–2022, identifying distinct clusters that represent different geographical patterns of the short rains. We explore the influence of tropical sea-surface temperature patterns, upper-level tropospheric flow, and low-level moisture fluxes on these clusters. A key revelation of our research is the limited predictability of certain geographical rainfall structures based on large-scale climatic drivers. This finding highlights a gap in current forecasting methodologies, emphasising the necessity for further research to understand and predict these intricate patterns. Our study illuminates the complexities of regional rainfall variability in East Africa, underlining the importance of continued investigation to improve climate resilience strategies in the region.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/117943
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Royal Meteorological Society
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