It's trade, stupid! How changes in trade competitiveness affect incumbents' electoral success

Dür, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6621-7243, Huber, R. A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6536-9392 and Stiller, Y. (2024) It's trade, stupid! How changes in trade competitiveness affect incumbents' electoral success. European Journal of Political Research. ISSN 1475-6765 doi: 10.1111/1475-6765.12663

Abstract/Summary

The consequences of economic globalization on electoral outcomes have recently become a prominent topic of research. We complement the emerging literature on this topic by studying whether changes in a subnational region's trade competitiveness affect the incumbent's vote share in that region. Using a novel dataset that relates subnational trade competitiveness to election results in 29 countries over a 20‐year period, we show that this is indeed the case. We also show that this effect is most pronounced for elections where the clarity of responsibility is high. Finally, we find mixed evidence for a moderating effect of incumbents' economic ideology as a moderator. These findings also contribute to the broader economic voting literature.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/115574
Identification Number/DOI	10.1111/1475-6765.12663
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Politics and International Relations
Uncontrolled Keywords	Sociology and Political Science
Publisher	Wiley
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