Poleward intensification of midlatitude extreme winds under warmer climate

Gentile, E. S., Zhao, M. and Hodges, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0894-229X (2023) Poleward intensification of midlatitude extreme winds under warmer climate. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6 (1). 219. ISSN 2397-3722 doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00540-x

Abstract/Summary

Extreme wind speeds associated with midlatitude cyclones pose a hazard tolives, businesses and infrastructure, and thus changes in their pattern and mag-nitude have important implications under human-induced global climate change.Here, we systematically explore, at a global scale, the contribution of midlatitudecyclones to extreme wind speed events occurring in both the Northern Hemi-sphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) under a present and an idealisedglobal warming scenario with a homogeneous SST increase of 2 K. Using theNOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s new high-resolution globalclimate model, we find that extreme near-surface wind speeds intensify by upto 3% K−1towards the poles, while they decrease by up to the same amountin the lower midlatitudes. When considering only cyclone-associated extremewind speed events, the same migration towards higher latitudes is found inboth percentage per degree warming and absolute value. Although the totalnumber of midlatitude cyclones decreases by roughly 4%, the proportion ofcyclone-associated near-surface extreme wind speed events in the warmer climatesimulation compared to the present climate simulation increases by 10%. Overall,the objective attribution of extreme wind speed events to midlatitude cyclonesdemonstrates that the poleward shift of midlatitude cyclones tracks and intensityresults into a poleward migration of cyclone-associated extreme wind speeds inboth hemispheres, leading to large impacts over the inhabited areas of the NH,including North-Western Europe, the British Isles, and the West Coast of NorthAmerica.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/113239
Identification Number/DOI	10.1038/s41612-023-00540-x
Refereed	No
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Nature Publishing Group
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