The influence of weather patterns and the Madden-Julian Oscillation on extreme precipitation over Sri Lanka

Deoras, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-5407-6520, Turner, A. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876, Hunt, K. M. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1480-3755 and Priyanthika Jayawardena, I. M. S. (2023) The influence of weather patterns and the Madden-Julian Oscillation on extreme precipitation over Sri Lanka. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (14). e2023GL103727. ISSN 0094-8276 doi: 10.1029/2023GL103727

Abstract/Summary

Sri Lanka is affected by extreme precipitation events every year, which cause floods, landslides and tremendous economic losses. We use the ERA5 reanalysis dataset to understand the association of extreme precipitation events with 30 weather patterns, which were originally derived to represent the variability of the Indian climate during January–December 1979–2016. We find that weather patterns that are most common during the northeast monsoon (December–February) and second intermonsoon (October–November) seasons produce the highest number of extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, extreme precipitation events occurring during these two seasons are more persistent than those during the southwest monsoon (May–September) and first intermonsoon (March–April) seasons. We analyse the modulation of extreme precipitation events by the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and find that their frequency is enhanced (suppressed) in phases 1–4 (5–8) for most weather patterns.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/112363
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2023GL103727
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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