Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter

Marcheggiani, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3571-608X, Robson, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Monerie, P.-A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5304-9559, Bracegirdle, T. J. and Smith, D. (2023) Decadal predictability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet in winter. Geophysical Research Letters, 50 (8). e2022GL102071. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2022GL102071

Abstract/Summary

This paper expands on work showing that the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable on decadal timescales to quantify the skill in capturing the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet’s location and speed. By focusing on decadal predictions made for years 2-9 from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project over 1960-2005 we find that there is significant skill in jet latitude and, especially, jet speed associated with the skill in the NAO. However, the skill in the NAO and jet latitude and speed indices appears to be sensitive to the period over which it is assessed. In particular, skill drops considerably when evaluating hindcasts up to the present day as models fail to capture the recent observed northern shift and strengthening of the winter eddy-driven jet, and more thus positive NAO. We suggest the drop in atmospheric circulation skill is related to reduced skill in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/111403
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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