Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru

Bischiniotis, K., van den Hurk, B., Zsoter, E., Coughlan de Perez, E., Grillakis, M. and Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2019) Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64 (10). pp. 1171-1189. ISSN 0262-6667 doi: 10.1080/02626667.2019.1617868

Abstract/Summary

Flood early warning systems play a more substantial role in risk mitigation than ever before. Hydrological forecasts, which are an essential part of these systems, are used to trigger action against floods around the world. This research presents an evaluation framework, where the skills of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) are assessed in Peru for the years 2009–2015. Simulated GloFAS discharges are compared against observed ones for 10 river gauges. Forecasts skills are assessed from two perspectives: (i) by calculating verification scores at every river section against simulated discharges and (ii) by comparing the flood signals against reported events. On average, river sections with higher discharges and larger upstream areas perform better. Raw forecasts provide correct flood signals for 82% of the reported floods, but exhibit low verification scores. Post-processing of raw forecasts improves most verification scores, but reduces the percentage of the correctly forecasted reported events to 65%.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/106837
Identification Number/DOI	10.1080/02626667.2019.1617868
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science > Department of Geography and Environmental Science
Publisher	Taylor and Francis
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