Betting on a buzz: mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks

Ramirez, P., Reade, J. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8610-530X and Singleton, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8247-8830 (2023) Betting on a buzz: mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks. International Journal of Forecasting, 39 (3). pp. 1413-1423. ISSN 0169-2070 doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.07.011

Abstract/Summary

Bookmakers sell claims to bettors that depend on the outcomes of professional sports events. Like other financial assets, the wisdom of crowds could help sellers to price these claims more efficiently. We use the Wikipedia profile page views of professional tennis players involved in over ten thousand singles matches to construct a buzz factor. This measures the difference between players in their pre-match page views relative to the usual number of views they received over the previous year. The buzz factor significantly predicts mispricing by bookmakers. Using this fact to forecast match outcomes, we demonstrate that a strategy of betting on players who received more pre-match buzz than their opponents can generate substantial profits. These results imply that sportsbooks could price outcomes more efficiently by listening to the buzz.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/106488
Identification Number/DOI	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.07.011
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Arts, Humanities and Social Science > School of Politics, Economics and International Relations > Economics
Uncontrolled Keywords	Wisdom of crowds, Betting markets, Efficient Market Hypothesis, Forecast efficiency, Professional tennis
Publisher	Elsevier
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