Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe

Schuhen, N., Schaller, N., Bloomfield, H. C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5616-1503, Brayshaw, D. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3927-4362, Lledó, L., Cionni, I. and Sillmann, J. (2022) Predictive skill of teleconnection patterns in twentieth century seasonal hindcasts and their relationship to extreme winter temperatures in Europe. Geophysical Research Letters, 49 (11). e2020GL092360. ISSN 1944-8007 doi: 10.1029/2020GL092360

Abstract/Summary

European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast datasets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti-correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large-scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/105427
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2020GL092360
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Interdisciplinary centres and themes > Energy Research Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	American Geophysical Union
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