Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context

Boult, V. L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7572-5469, Black, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1344-6186, Abdillahi, H. S., Bailey, M., Harris, C., Kilavi, M., Kniveton, D., MacLeod, D., Mwangi, E., Otieno, G., Rees, E., Rowhani, P., Taylor, O. and Todd, M. C. (2022) Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context. Climate Risk Management, 35. 100402. ISSN 2212-0963 doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402

Abstract/Summary

The lives and livelihoods of people around the world are increasingly threatened by climate-related risks as climate change increases the frequency and severity of high-impact weather. In turn, the risk of multiple hazards occurring simultaneously grows and compound impacts become more likely. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proposed the use of multi-hazard impact-based forecasting (IbF) to better anticipate and reduce the impacts of concurrent hazards, but as yet, there are few operational examples in the humanitarian sector. Drought is particularly susceptible to multi-hazard influences. However, challenges encountered in the development of drought IbF systems – including poor understanding of compound impacts and specific hazard-focused mandates – raise important questions for the feasibility of multi-hazard IbF as envisioned by the WMO. With these challenges in mind, we propose an interim approach in which real-time assessment of dynamic vulnerability provides a context for drought-based IbF. The incorporation of dynamic vulnerability indicators account for the local effects of non-drought hazards, whilst the use of a drought-based system facilitates effective intervention. The proposed approach will improve our understanding of compound events, enhance adoption of IbF in the humanitarian sector, and better mitigate the impacts of concurrent hazards.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-clone.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/102514
Item Type	Article
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > NCAS Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
Publisher	Elsevier
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